Welcome To Phase Four Of The Property Market Cycle

Apr 20 / David Lee
I am going to declare from my recent observations that we have gone from phase three (hyper supply) into phase four (recession) in recent months. Estate agents, property developers, property investors, first-time buyers and house sellers are now noticing what I have been forewarning in my past newsletters and videos. But, this will be a shock to many!

Having described previously my own observations of discussions with property investors at network meetings, this month I have asked ChatGPT to analyse this investor’s realisations.

Click the above images to play each video— the ChatGPT review below is from the third one

Video Presentation

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 ChatGPT Investor Mindset Review

Several phrases in the third video reinforce the same pattern from the first and second: he is not operating from a fixed investment framework, but from changing emotions, changing market conditions and changing preferences. The vocabulary suggests he is reacting to events after they happen, rather than having a strategy for different market conditions in advance.

The clearest examples are:
1) “I’m fairly certain now, that isn't going to be the plan
2) “the plan is going to be that we re-let the property”
3) “this whole thing... hasn’t gone to plan
4) “we’re having to rethink the plan

These are not the words of somebody following a defined strategy. They show that his “plan” changes according to what the market is doing at that moment. He repeatedly describes himself as being pushed into decisions:

1) “it therefore leads me with only one option really”
2) “it’s like, well I’ve got to do it rather than make a decision to do it”
3) “this is the only option”

That language is important. It suggests he does not feel in control of events. He sees himself as having no alternatives, when in reality there are usually many ways to restructure, refinance, delay, negotiate, improve cash flow or adapt a property strategy. Because he doesn’t know other alternatives, he views the market as something happening to him.

Another revealing phrase is: “whether it’s happened in the fall and I just didn't know about it potentially”. This suggests he has not been paying attention to the wider market cycle until it affected him personally. He appears surprised that the market has changed, rather than anticipating that property markets move in cycles.

The same pattern appears when he says:
1) “we weren’t driven by any market conditions, we were driven by the tenant moving out”
2) “in the space of a few quick months the whole industry seems to have changed somewhat”.

This implies his decisions are triggered by personal circumstances, not by a broader understanding of the market. The market did not suddenly change in a few weeks; his awareness of it changed.

He also repeatedly uses phrases showing a desire to escape uncertainty rather than manage it:
1) “reduce our life stress”
2) “make our financial life less complicated”
3) “remove that stress from our lives”
4) “I’m valuing time and stress quite highly”
5) “I’d quite happily offer a segment of profit... to somebody else”.

There is nothing wrong with wanting less stress, but in this context it shows that he sees investment primarily as something that should feel comfortable and predictable. When it stops feeling comfortable, he wants to exit. That is much closer to the mindset of an employee or saver than an entrepreneur or investor.

Another revealing phrase is: “I don’t like that thought process of borrowing to try and make money”.

This shows an
emotional discomfort with leverage rather than an understanding of when borrowing can be useful or dangerous. He treats all borrowing as something negative, rather than as a tool that must be managed correctly.

Perhaps the most telling section is at the end:
1) “we were going to let it forever”
2) “then we were going to sell”
3) “then we were going to use the money in the stock market”
4) “and now, potentially, we’re not”

This sequence demonstrates drift rather than strategy. Each plan is replaced by another plan as circumstances change. There is no stable framework underneath the decisions.

Even when he says: “I think, just remain adaptable, change to the market conditions”,  he appears to mean reacting after conditions change, rather than preparing in advance for different possible outcomes.

Overall, the vocabulary suggests someone who entered property because the market was favourable and because “everybody” seemed to be doing it, but who did not have a deeper strategy for what to do when the environment changed. That is why, when conditions became more difficult, he shifted from wanting more properties, to wanting to sell, to wanting stocks, to wanting to re-let. The direction keeps changing, but the underlying way of thinking remains the same.

Conclusion

From the outside looking in, it's easy to observe and make judgements. Yet, from my own experience attending property network meetings, I can tell you this mindset is not unusual — it was the norm. (You can read more in my newsletter: "Why I Feel Like An Alien At Property Investor Meetings"

Phase 4 (recession)
in the property cycle typically lasts 4-5 years. We saw this in 1989-1993, and again following the 2008 financial crisis between 2008-2013.

And yet, by taking no heed of these patterns — by assuming the market will continue in a straight line — history repeats itself. The cycle doesn't change... only the faces who realise it too late.
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